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Interest Rate Up-Date – Jim McNees Mortgage Blog

admin — Sat, 12 May 2012 00:12:29 +0000

This up-date is posted from Kiplingers forecast:

INTEREST RATES

Last updated: April 25, 2012

Renewed fears of a European financial crisis are driving interest rates lower, but the drop will be short-lived. Europe has strengthened its commitment to the euro and should be able to calm investors looking for a safe haven in Treasury notes, something that is temporarily depressing U.S. interest rates.

At the same time, modest economic growth and inflation pressure in the U.S. are likely to remain well contained, so rates aren’t likely to gallop upward, either.

The yield on 10-year Treasury notes may briefly fall below 2% in the coming weeks but will settle between 2% and 2.3% for much of this year. We expect solid progress toward managing problems in Europe, and healthier economic growth in the U.S. will push that rate toward 2.5% by the end of this year. Expect 30-year fixed rates for home mortgages to climb about half a percentage point as well, ending the year around 4.5%.

Federal Reserve officials won’t want to see mortgage rates rise too much, fearing that would hurt the nascent improvement in home sales. Still, a March uptick in inflation lessens odds that the central bank will embark on a new round of credit swaps aimed at lowering long-term rates when the current program ends in June. The goal is to keep downward pressure on long-term rates by rolling over short-term debt into purchases of long-term Treasuries. A new round of such swaps will happen only if job growth shrivels and unemployment rises, threatening a new recession. But that/s not on the horizon.

Web Administrator Opening in Virginia

admin — Mon, 07 May 2012 17:48:53 +0000

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1L0RhJ7by44n6y-bV2lsQpW71PWF9QOanSQ4yxZF362g/edit#

Closing Technical Signal-4-26-12-Jim McNees Blog

admin — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 22:15:32 +0000

CLOSING TECHNICAL SIGNAL: We grow cautious as the Bond trades near the upper end of the trading range. MARKET WRAP: Stocks, Bonds, Oil and Gold all traded higher in today’s trading. Initial Claims were lower, earnings reports were weaker but the Equity markets rallied. Could it have been the positive Pending Home Sales report? The 3.5% coupon rose 16bp to end the session at 103.59. The Dow gained 113.90 points or .87% to 13,204.62, the S&P 500 jumped 9.30 points or .67% to 1,399.99 while the Nasdaq was up 20.98 or .69% to end at 3,050.61. Oil ended at $104.55.barrel up 43 cents. Tomorrow’s data includes the first reading of Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter of 2012, the Employment Cost Index and Consumer Sentiment.

Closing Technical Signal-4-25-12 – Jim McNees Blog

admin — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 21:59:04 +0000

CLOSING TECHNICAL SIGNAL: Mortgage Bonds showed resilience today closing near unchanged levels even as Stocks rallied but the 3.5% coupon candle does show some indecision. We will continue to cautiously float. MARKET WRAP: Today’s Fed statement did not mention QE3 but Fed Chairman Bernanke did allude to it if necessary at his press conference, which helped MBS close near unchanged levels. A weak durable orders report also supported Bond prices during the session. The 3.5% coupon closed at 103.44 down 3bp. The Stock markets rallied on the back of a blowout earnings report from Apple Inc. and positive corporate earnings so far this season. The Dow rose 89.16 points or .69% to 13,090.72, the S&P 500 gained 18.72 points or 1.36% to 1,390.69 while the tech heavy Nasdaq surged 68.03 points or 2.3% to 3,029.63 on Apple’s strong earnings report. Oil was last seen in after hours trading at $104.08/barrel up 53 cents while Gold settled near unchanged at $1,645/oz.. Tomorrow’s data includes Initial Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales.

Closing Technical Signal – 4/24 – Jim McNees Blog

admin — Mon, 23 Apr 2012 21:35:12 +0000

CLOSING TECHNICAL SIGNAL: Today’s candle ahead of the Fed decision shows indecision. We are still Floating ahead of the Fed meeting. MARKET WRAP: Not much action in the Mortgage Bond markets today with low volumes as investors await the Fed’s monetary policy statement on Wednesday. MBS had limited gains as Stocks fell. The 3.5% coupon rose 12bp to end the session at 103.69. Stocks dropped on renewed European fears and as US economic data has come in rather weak in the past month. The Dow fell 102.09 points to 12,927.17, the S&P 500 lost 11.59 points to end at 1,366.94 while the Nasdaq dropped 30 points to finish at 2,970.45. Oil was last seen in after hours trading at $103.10/barrel down 78 cents. Tomorrow’s data includes consumer confidence and new home sales.

Closing Technical Signal – Jim McNees Mortgage Guide Blog

admin — Thu, 19 Apr 2012 21:54:05 +0000

Thu, Apr 19 – 5:01 PM ET
CLOSING TECHNICAL SIGNAL: Despite the candle’s show of indecision, we will continue to recommend a Floating bias as the 3.5% continues to trade above support at the 50-DMA. MARKET WRAP: Not much action in the Bond markets today as prices moved up modestly supported by rumors of a possible debt downgrade in France and along with weaker than expected Existing Home Sales and Philly Fed along with rising Jobless Claims. The 3.5% coupon rose 9bp to end the session at 103.59. Stocks fell on the aforementioned news – the Dow lost 68.65 points or -0.53%, the S&P 500 Index dropped 8.22 points or -0.59% to 1,376.92 while the Nasdaq fell 23.89 points or -0.79% to end at 3,007.56. Oil closed near unchanged $102.27/barrel down 40 cents. There are no economic reports due for release tomorrow.

Closing Technical Signal 4-12-12- Mortgage Guide – Jim McNees Blog

admin — Thu, 12 Apr 2012 21:47:30 +0000

CLOSING TECHNICAL SIGNAL: We are still cautious as Stocks show resilience. However, the 3.5% continues to trade near support at the 50-DMA.

MARKET WRAP: Stocks rallied again today but the losses in the MBS markets were moderate after a initial jobless claims rose and inflation from the Producer Price Index remained tame. Tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index will be more heavily weighted. The 3.5% coupon settled at 103.19 down 3bp. Renewed talks of QE also helped to support Bonds and helped to lift Stocks today. The Dow gained 181.19 points or 1.41% to 12,986.58, the S&P 500 Index jumped 18.86 points or 1.38% to 1,387.57 while the Nasdaq rose 39.09 points or 1.30% to settle at 3,055.55. Oil was last seen in after hours trading at $103.76/barrel up $1.05. Tomorrow’s data includes CPI and Consumer Sentiment.

Closing Technical Signals-4/10/12 Mortgage Guide-Jim McNees Blog

admin — Tue, 10 Apr 2012 21:06:11 +0000

CLOSING TECHNICAL SIGNAL: We grow more cautious as can be seen by the long upper wick for the 3.5% and with positive earnings from Alcoa. After several good days, locking may be prudent to protect gains. MARKET WRAP: Mortgage Bonds rose for the 5th straight session as investors continue to shift out of riskier assets like stocks and commodities and back into the safe haven of the Bond markets. The 3.5% coupon rose 16bp to end the session at 103.69 up from a low of 102.09 on April 3 and way off the low of 101.62 hit on March 20. The yield on the 10-Year T Note hit 2.39% on March 19 and has fallen to 1.98% today. The Dow lost 213.66 points or 1.65% to end at 12,715.93, the S&P 500 fell 23.61 points or 1.65% to 1,358.59 while the Nasdaq dropped 55.86 points or 1.83% to finish at 2,991.22. Oil fell $1.44 to $101.02/barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI). The Treasury will sell $21B 10-yr notes tomorrow. The Fed’s Beige Book will be released at 2:00pm ET. As mentioned earlier, Dow component Alcoa beat quarterly earnings expectations and could set the tone for tomorrow’s trading as Stocks may look to bounce back after the 5-day sell-off. The monthly Bond Rollover will occur some time this evening and will be reflected before MBS open tomorrow.

Jim McNees Blog – The Simple Truths of Stress

admin — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 19:48:38 +0000

The Simple Truths of Stress
YOU Have a Choice in the Matter

The great comedian George Burns once said, “If you ask what is the single most important key to longevity, I would have to say it is avoiding worry, stress and tension. And if you didn’t ask me, I’d still have to say it.” As Mr. Burns lived to the age of 100, he likely took his own advice.

Most people would agree that stress can have a big impact on their health…and that prolonged stress can lead to far more serious symptoms then a tension headache, upset stomach, or sleepless night. In fact, according to the American Psychological Association’s 2011 Stress in America™ survey , 94 percent of adults believe that stress can contribute to major illnesses like heart disease, obesity, and depression.

The good news from the survey is that, overall, the stress Americans are experiencing has reached its lowest level since 2007. The bad news is that stress levels are still higher than what most people consider healthy.

According to the survey, 22 percent of Americans reported experiencing extreme stress. In addition, only 27 percent of adults said that their stress decreased in the past five years while 53 percent said that they have experienced personal health problems because of stress.

Finding simple and useful ways to manage stress can make a big difference on our health and quality of life. That’s why we invite you to watch this short video from Simple Truths, which will teach you 10 ways that you can simplify your life. As the video attests, “Life is a series of choices and YOU can choose LESS stress.” Starting right now.

YOU Magazine is pleased to present Stress Is a Choice, a short film produced by Simple Truths, a consumer-direct publisher of motivational books and films. Visit www.simpletruths.com to learn more about this unique company.

Jim McNees – Weekly Economic and Market Review

admin — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 15:32:25 +0000

Weekly Economic and Market Review
The purpose of this weekly update is to provide our clients and prospective clients with a brief summary of market conditions and an update on how the Trust Division views these economic and market activities. Anxiety about the markets is understandable given the great volatility and difficult economic conditions. Our hope is that we can provide information and understanding concerning how assets held with the Trust Division are being protected and managed. If you are interested in learning more about asset management at Union First Market Bank, please contact us. – The Trust Division’s Investment Strategy Committee
Index 1 Week YTD 1 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr
S&P 500 -0.49 11.64 10.00 21.82 1.63
DIJA -1.15 7.74 11.20 22.25 3.76
Russell 2000 0.02 12.34 3.75 25.82 1.90
MSCI EAFE -1.48 10.82 -4.33 16.13 -3.61
BarCap US Agg 0.22 0.18 7.28 6.91 6.21

(Figures as of 3-26-12)

Economy:
What appeared to weigh on the market was mainly economic news: (1) China’s manufacturing activity continued to slow; (2) both domestic new home and existing home sales moderated; (3) persistent high oil prices; and (4) natural profit taking after the strong market move since last October.

Markets:
An off-week for the market and just the second down week in this first quarter 2012. We saw profit taking in the energy sector as it was off just over 3% for the week. Manufacturing growth in Europe also indicated slower growth. Both the French markets (CAC 40 down 3.3%) and the German market (DAX down 2.27%) contracted as a result.

Investment focus:
For a historical perspective on rates, the Treasury yield curve is listed below. The dark bottom line is where treasury rates are currently. The middle or green line is where rates were a year ago. The top or orange line is where rates were 5 years ago. If anyone needs a reminder of how far down rates have gone, this is it. Five years ago the 3-month treasury was yielding over 5%; today it is at 0.07%. Trying to find yield in this rate environment is very difficult. More on that next week.

Investment products, insurance, and annuity products are:

Not insured by FDIC or any other government agency. Not bank guaranteed. Subject to risk, may lose value, including the possible loss of principal.
Not a deposit. Not a condition to any banking service or activity.

Any information presented in the Weekly Economic and Market Review is not intended to provide personal tax, legal, nor investment advice. Opinions expressed are subject to change. The investments or strategies presented do not take into account the investment objectives, financial needs, legal, nor tax considerations of particular investors. It is important that you consider this information in the context of your personal risk tolerance, investment goals, legal, and tax situation. Clients should review any planned financial transactions or arrangements that may have tax, accounting, or legal implications with their personal professional advisors.